Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 34.304488 37.115958 40.179515 43.789797 47.959862 52.665046 58.433432
2025-04-06 29.820421 33.504887 37.785304 43.209074 50.025694 58.495648 70.139160
2025-04-13 26.696826 30.661428 35.446077 41.788119 50.210483 61.398036 78.145903
2025-04-20 25.544828 29.945178 35.450672 43.076947 53.788858 69.069008 94.277753
2025-04-27 24.551576 29.270575 35.355402 44.110171 57.039027 76.756648 112.621346
2025-05-04 23.606956 28.541968 35.068756 44.772065 59.756634 84.079611 132.849338
2025-05-11 22.480948 27.467212 34.189282 44.438495 60.836803 88.858175 150.063880
2025-05-18 21.431524 26.413895 33.239113 43.871395 61.414770 92.810401 167.210802
2025-05-25 20.410975 25.331969 32.160627 42.986475 61.313492 95.437291 182.492760
2025-06-01 19.488715 24.332864 31.130356 42.073565 61.027324 97.618987 197.820606
2025-06-08 18.578944 23.304382 29.992822 40.890438 60.109933 98.318766 209.418899
2025-06-15 18.392688 23.292894 30.354846 42.156640 63.798849 109.725737 263.819245
2025-06-22 17.775511 22.652618 29.765077 41.854224 64.621581 115.223362 304.878768
2025-06-29 17.141412 21.961105 29.061387 41.307701 64.917156 119.634936 348.126187
2025-07-06 16.379798 21.047225 27.961968 39.986330 63.477376 119.258290 368.212556
2025-07-13 16.238672 21.045778 28.285789 41.185072 67.414421 134.598826 511.896880
2025-07-20 16.051682 20.963075 28.470303 42.144905 71.011988 150.677702 735.931842
2025-07-27 15.805134 20.775890 28.470709 42.759242 73.945298 166.225466 1087.119432
2025-08-03 15.397081 20.321775 28.006000 42.449692 74.659847 174.534105 1453.295032
2025-08-10 14.974095 19.828310 27.451365 41.923182 74.775228 180.778403 1927.584000
2025-08-17 14.521797 19.273633 26.769722 41.100976 74.050492 183.513947 2425.061818
2025-08-24 14.088952 18.736134 26.095733 40.251961 73.162302 185.365964 3061.792331
2025-08-31 13.632819 18.149191 25.316931 39.150416 71.508743 183.447449 3494.600551